Animated forecast for radiation dispersion from Fukushima is available from the Meteocentrale website in Switzerland, at altitudes of 10, 500 and 1500 m. In its “Dispersion movie for Japan”, the forecast show that plumes regularly reach far out at any altitude, i.e. all Japan and further out. When I checked it in the last couple of days, wind blew primarily eastward with secundary streams turning back to Hokkaido and Tokyo / Chiba. This is consistent with reports of radioactivity in Tokyo, Chiba, Saitama, etc. It reinforces my belief in the fact that readings reported by MEXT are not faithful to reality (Cf. Problematic Japanese Environment Radiation Readings on SurvivalJapan). Indeed, according to MEXT, Hokkaido for instance is globally radio-negative whereas the Meteocentrale animations clearly show that this area is often under the Fukushima plumes. Among other goods, Hokkaido provides most dairy products such as butter, milk and cheese in Japan and it is a major industrial fishing and wildlife center (Cf. Dangerous Domestic Butter Production Promoted by Mainichi Daily News on SurvivalJapan). Eastern Japan food and water should be completely avoided and Hokkaido is now highly suspicious.
One could argue that Meteocentrale provides a forecast based on a model which may or may not exactly reflect what is really happening. Yet a look to the “Streamlines movie for Japan” clearly show winds heading back to Japan over Hokkaido and Greater Tokyo around a high pressure zone.
We can infer that when meteorological maps show this particular high pressure zone, we will not need any animation to know that radiation from Fukushima is bound to fall on Hokkaido and Greater Tokyo areas. It is highly unlikely that these maps can be censored by the government and they are always available from many foreign sources on the Internet.
Furthermore, we can question the harmlessness of staying in any place in Japan – but for Okinawa – and in South Korea given the 800 – 1000 km extent of plumes. In the case of Chernobyl, they extended as far as Spain according an animation shown in the documentary movie “Into Eternity“. However, the Meteocentrale animation show that they travel mostly over obstacle-free Pacific Ocean, as was the case when the hydrogen explosion occurred. We should monitor if this is the normal stream (from west to east); if some stream are ever forecast to reach western Japan and Kyushu; what is the likely dose value at the end of a plume (likely to be “quite low”).