Archive for the ‘Meteo Forecast of Radiation’ Category

Last night, I listened to the soothing sound of rain on the roofs in my futon – but I couldn’t get off my mind the thought that winds have been blowing from north-east of Japan all day and would be until Saturday and the night rain was ladden with radioactivity from Fukushima to a certain extent: black rain indeed.

Black rain was the expression used to describe the radioactive fallout after American nuclear bombing of Nagasaki and Hiroshima, before they forced Japan to accept nuclear power. It was later on used as a title for a silly and inaccurate gangster American movie by Ridley Scott. Black refers to the harmful particles in rain drops and is doubly chilling by night time.

Anyway, I slept well but I would like to warn everyone not to stand in the rain until the week-end and especially keep your children dry. Watch out for leaky rubber boots where feet soak for hours, have them wash their hands when coming back home as usual, etc. especially if you are in Aichi (Nagoya) and Kansai (Osaka, Kyoto) areas. Of course, the whole Kanto region (Tokyo, Chiba, Yokohama) is directly under, but nobody should live there anymore.

Contrarily to my post on Shikoku, Fukushima winds avoid it this time, as well as Wakayama according to the Meteocentrale simulation. However, it is only a simulation and daily updates change significantly (usually the last of the 3 days forecast is wrong), so the real situation might change on an hourly basis. Even if this was not the case, there would still be a gap between the simulation and reality. A slight difference means that Shikoku could be swept instead of Osaka since it is after all a small territory. The wind direction has been consistently reported and the higher probability is that the whole Honshu region from Fukushima down to Kansai will get a share of it. (more…)


Fukushima is the primary source of atmospheric radioactive material fallout. Radioiodine, which disappears rapidly, is regularly detected and shows that criticallity is still happening. Melt-through in three reactors and total lack of control and knowledge about conditions by TEPCO would make it at least three times worse as Chernobyl – yet this has still to become common sense and most people in north-eastern Japan try to reassure themselves that it is still safe until the fourth reactor blows up, which is only a matter of time. Tokyo should have been evacuated immediately and forever – after 8 months, an orderly evacuation could have been carried out and housing built but the Japanese government and mostly the population, who lives in denial, decided otherwise.

Usually SurvivalJapan leaves Tokyo out of the picture as anyone serious about their survival in Japan would have left the no man’s land area, including Tokyo, long ago. However, M. Goshi Hosono’s plan to spread radiation all over Japan is making its way, with potential effects outside the no man’s land, in what we call the monitored land, as can be read in the Japan Today article below and which was already mentioned on SurvivalJapan almost 3 months ago in Tokyo Imports 500,000,000 Kg Of Nuclear Waste.

Incinerators are less than 4 miles away from the Imperial Palace and popular places like Shibuya and Ebisu, which will all be under the radioactive fallout when winds abate.

I am told that yakuza are different from other similar organizations worldwide, as they supposedly appeared first to protect outcasts and organize work for them, and are nationalists who want to protect Japan and the Imperial Family. Mothers who occupy Hibiya Park in Tokyo (close to the Parliament, the Imperial Palace and headquarters of many large dysfunctional companies such as TEPCO and neighbor Mizuho) reported that harassment from right-wing militia somewhat relented when mothers told them that they would pack up their camping tents and leave if His Majesty would meet with them and ask them to. There are a few public enemies in the government, firms and media nowadays who are jeopardizing Imperial lives and the future of Japan – one can only wonder what yakuza associations are waiting for before saving this country if nobody else will, not that I am suggesting anything.

Winds will carry radioactive smog towards Chiba peninsula and Izu peninsula and archipelago depending on the season and weather. Winds seldom blow west but they occasionnally do, as Meteocentrale wind simulations show, and they sometimes even reach Osaka from Fukushima. The flying distance between Tokyo to Osaka (250 miles) is about the same order as between Fukushima to Tokyo (150 miles), although slightly less and Tokyo is a secundary source, not exactly like Fukushima itself.

Besides, the terrain configuration around Tokyo, i.e. the Kanto Plain, is unfortunately perfect to drive radiation fallout as we surmised from March eleven and was later proven by the presence of hotspots in Gunma, Saitama, etc. Further west, the region of Nagoya, in Aichi prefecture, will be also affected as well as the whole Nobi Plain, although less than the Kanto Plain of course. The whole coastal area between Tokyo and Nagoya, i.e. Shizuoka, etc. will be on the way on adverse days. Radioactive winds can also easily go through between Shiga and Mie prefectures, where mountains are low and several valleys let highways through to Osaka.

Japan Today – Tsunami debris from Miyagi to be incinerated in Tokyo this week

Dec. 13, 2011 –


The first load of tsunami debris from Miyagi Prefecture will be test burned at a waste incineration plant in Tokyo’s Ota Ward on Tuesday and Wednesday, with further tests scheduled for Dec 20-21 at a Shinagawa Ward plant.

If the test burns go well, large-scale burning will commence next February at a rate of 150 tons per day, Tokyo metropolitan government officials said, Fuji TV reported. Under the plan, 10,000 tons of combustible debris from Onagawa will be disposed of in incineration facilities located on reclaimed land in the Tokyo Bay area.

Officials plan to burn 500,000 tons by 2013.

Miyagi, Iwate and Fukushima prefectures have massive mountains of rubble, said to weigh more than 23 million tons.

The debris being sent to Tokyo is mainly wood and metal. By the end of next March, Tokyo will have received a total of 500,000 tons of debris from Miyagi and Iwate prefectures.

This article may still be available from its original source.

I have recommended for us as citizens to monitor radioactivity also in our relatively spared areas, especially near incinerators and mountain spots where wild garbage dumps spoil forests (Cf. Mid-October Status & Editorial in SurvivalJapan). It turns out that the government seems to be candid about its intention to pollute forests with radioactive waste as reported by Yomiuri Shimbun, a mainstream news media which article is reproduced hereafter. The same newspaper also mentions, in a different article, the risk of internal contamination by radioactive pollen from cedars (cryptomeria or in Japanese “sugi”). Many people are allergic to these during pollination – the risk here is much more serious. When yellow dust was found in the rain in the no man’s land, I surmised it was sulfur (Cf. Typhoon Roke Aftermath In Fukushima in SurvivalJapan) created by nuclear reaction on-going at Fukushima while some other people proposed uranium, plutonium compounds or simply pollen from China. If pollen it was, one can imagine how far cedar pollen could fly within Japan. Fortunately, dominant winds usually spare our areas from the no man’s land fallout – but facial masks remain highly recommended during pollination even outside the no man’s land (Cf. Of Gloves And Masks in SurvivalJapan). Although now symbolic in Japan, sugi was introduced after WWII to replace forests burnt by American bombings and as an effort to promote wood industry. The article about sugi pollen is also reproduced below, however there is no “harmless” level, contrary to what Satoshi Yoshida, an expert on radiation ecology and a senior researcher at the Research Center for Radiation Protection of the National Institute of Radiological Sciences (again some Orwellian Newspeak), states in the article. Radioactive particles which gets into the human body are harmful in minute quantities which do not compare to external exposure effects of the same dose. In some regions within the no man’s land, local people have decided to fall whole forests with the aim to protect forest workers from cesium supposedly concentrated in tree leaves and burn the wood. However it may be true that these forests are dangerous places, the solution offered by human beings is as usual worse than the original problem. Radioactive forests will remain a hot topic.


Sept. 29 Update : New forecast shows that the “monitored region” (Cf. Japan Livability Map September 2011 in SurvivalJapan) was lifted today. No fall-out on Western Japan nor Shikoku today.


Typhoon Roke did hit Fukushima as in our forecast (Cf. Typhoons and Fukushima in SurvivalJapan). News all over the world repeated the Japanese official statement that no damage had occurred in the nuclear power plant, although about as much as 40 cm of rain water had flooded in some areas. Cameras which monitored the site encountered a malfunction just when the typhoon hit in so we have no image of any material that might have been expelled in case of a new hydrogen explosion. In some other news, TEPCO suddenly stated that 500,000 liters of “groundwater” leaked in the plant everyday.

Fukushima Diary blog reports that the radioactivity level has significantly risen around Futabamachi to 21 uSv/h, i.e. 1 mSv in 2 days. In their post, they also mention an article by NHK according to which the level of radioactive cesium in the sea nearby had doubled. In Utsunomiya, still according to Fukushima Diary sources, 330 millions Becquerels / square kilometer was measured from cesium 134 although oddly no cesium 137 was detected. Utsunomiya is the main city of Honda Motors where a few expats work. Finally Fukushima Diary reported some suspicious yellow powder in the rain, etc. All details, photos and references available in their post.

What to believe is a personal matter. My gut feeling tells me something did get wrong that night and that both atmospheric fall-out and ocean contamination did increase,  without any actual hydrogen explosion so far. What went wrong in my opinion is the same thing that happened on March 11. The yellow powder that Fukushima Diary blogger associated with cesium is probably made of sulfate particles coming from newly created radioactive sulphur. This article explains the process.

Meteocentrale website forecast now shows that radiation fall-out on western Japan is  restricted to the Nagoya area (whole Aichi prefecture), ironically home of the nuclear power plant manufacturer Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI). This heavily industrialized area is also severely hit by flooding due the typhoon Roke which could further damage the Japanese economy but this is out of the scope of this blog.


The course of a typhoon is so erratic that nobody can tell for sure where it will pass through. Roke typhoon actually completed a full loop before it decided to head up north and should hit Maebashi near Tokyo tomorrow around 5 pm according to the Japan Meteorological Agency forecast from 1h30 ago. If it stays along this course, it will run through Fukushima around 10 pm, with a 70 percent chance. Since the corium has disappeared underneath the basement and that the nuclear power plant roof has blown up, there are high chances that it will get flooded. TEPCO had the excellent idea of blowing off the natural cliff that used to protect the site from the sea in order to gain better access – and indeed, waves can easily flow in during a typhoon, even without any tsunami. Therefore, tomorrow night, there might be a new hydrogen explosion into the atmosphere, and, if you’re really pessimistic, you could envision a chain reaction for the whole site. We will be grateful if we are still alive and mildly contaminated by Thursday morning.

In the screenshot below, Fukushima is indicated by the red spot.